Historic and Simulated Desert-Oasis Ecotone Changes in the Arid Tarim River Basin, China

The desert-oasis ecotone, as a crucial natural barrier, maintains the stability of oasis agricultural production and protects habitat security. This paper investigates dynamic evolution ecotone in Tarim River Basin predicts near-future land-use change using cellular automata–Markov (CA-Markov) model. Results indicate that overall area shows shrinking trend (from 67,642 km2 1990 to 46,613 2015) within is mainly manifested by conversion large amount forest grass into arable land. increasing demand for land groundwater has led decline level, which an important reason deterioration ecotone. rising temperature drought have further exacerbated this trend. Assuming current development without intervention, CA-Markov model 2030, there will be additional 1566 reduction 1151 forested grassland inevitably weaken ecological barrier role trigger growing crisis.